Questions

Our solution:

Toss the coin twice.
Let TH, HT and TT correspond to the three choices.
And if you get HH, just repeat (so it takes 8/3 tosses on average).


BIASED COIN

If the coin was biased, TH and HT would occur with equal probability.
So you could assign THHT, HTTH and THTH to the three choices, with other 4-toss outcomes rejected.
Or you could assign HTT, THT and TTH to the three choices, with other 3-toss outcomes rejected.

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Although it is less accurate than adding up individual costs from the WBS, it is less time consuming. The trade-off is accuracy. Answer A is incorrect because to do a more accurate cost estimate, you need to delve into details. Answer C is tempting also, and possible, except we don't really know if the project in question can use perametric modeling . Answer D is incorrect because it takes the most time, but it is most accurate.

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